Pao's Prospect Profile
Malik Nabers, Wide Receiver, LSU, #8
After recording 70+ catches and eclipsing 1,000 yards as a true sophomore, Malik Nabers concluded his collegiate career with a monster junior season, cementing himself as a top wide receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Overview:
6’0”, 200 lbs, 20 years old
Top 150 Recruit in the Class of 2021
2023 Stats:
89 catches, 1,569 yards, 14 TDs, 17.6 Y/Rec
92.9 PFF grade (1st), 3.64 Y/RR (3rd), 12.2 ADOT, 141 Passer Rating when targeted
Unanimous All-American and First-Team All-SEC
Strengths
Elite speed & burst
Nabers’ speed jumps out all over his tape. He is constantly run by SEC defenders and will likely run in the 4.3-4.4 range at the NFL combine. More impressively, he is able to reach his top speed quickly and get on defenders' toes fast. These traits make him a deep threat at all times and allowed him to catch a lot of long touchdowns this past season.
Alabama’s safety is lined up in man coverage 7 yards off, but Nabers makes up ground quickly and by the time the ball is caught, there is no defender in sight, resulting in an easy 46 yard touchdown.
The explosiveness that Malik Nabers brings to the table is complemented by his uncanny ability to stop on a dime. It makes him one of the top separators of the class and gives a quarterback easy throws underneath.
This defender is in a blender, as Nabers gets on the defender’s toes, stops, and bursts out of his break for a nasty stop and go route. The defender is beaten by almost 10 yards and should have been a walk-in touchdown with a better throw.
Another great example of Malik getting on a defender's toes and stopping to create separation and give a QB an easy throw.
Versatility
While only 6’0”, Malik Nabers can line up anywhere in the formation. Per PFF, he split his snaps almost dead even in 2023 (349 to 347) between the slot and outside. He shared the field with Brian Thomas, another first rounder who exclusively worked from the outside, so LSU utilized Nabers flexibility. The ability to line up anywhere will aid him at the next level and give a play caller a myriad of ways to get the ball in his hands.
Nabers’ 2023 demonstrates his success vs both man and zone. While yards per route run were higher in zone coverage (4.46) than man (3.2), he averaged almost 15 yards a reception vs man coverage and scored 6 touchdowns. Whatever scheme he was presented with, he dominated from all of the field.
RAC Ability
Given his speed and acceleration, it’s no surprise that Nabers is dangerous with the ball in his hands. Malik was extremely effective within 10 yards this season and made numerous big plays due to his vision and speed.
Both examples here show Nabers’ ability to break tackles and gain valuable yards after the catch. He gets right up the field vs Florida and breaks two tackles as he gains 30 yards on a play where most would be tackled instantly. Against Ole Miss, he sticks his foot in the ground twice to avoid defenders and get the edge, showcasing his twitchiness and vision for open grass.
Go-to’s: Slot Fades + In Breaking routes
Malik Nabers did a ton of damage in 2023 on Slot Fades. All over his tape, he is constantly beating defenders on these routes for big plays or touchdowns. He is able to get even with defenders in off-coverage quickly and give his QB a chance for a big play.
All three of these touchdowns show Nabers winning to the outside at the top of his route and pulling away from a defender late. He scored on another slot fade versus Mississippi State and nearly added two more on this route against Missouri.
Through my analysis of 2023 game film, it is clear that Malik Nabers is more effective when asked to cut in rather than out. He has shown success running slants, posts, and over routes in the short to intermediate part of the field. His in cuts are sharper and effective in beating man coverage.
This route and catch against Florida is a great example of Nabers winning to the inside on his release and snapping the dig across the defender’s face for an easy throw and catch. All defenders have to respect his ability to beat them downfield so routes like these will be available often at the next level against man coverage.
This route is a beauty, as Nabers sells inside and then breaks upfield leaving the defender twisting and turning for an easy LSU touchdown.
Weaknesses
Needs to be more consistent with release
There are few flaws in Malik Nabers game, but my analysis of his film pointed me to two areas that I believe can be refined in order to take his game to the next level. For starters, he needs to be more consistent with his release against press coverage. He is super quick, but defenders that challenged him in press man at times were successful.
Against Renardo Green of Florida State (a Thorpe Award semifinalist), Nabers lost multiple reps in press man coverage because he never gained any separation at the line of scrimmage. The refs were lenient, but Green was 3/3 in press man on targets to Nabers.
While Nabers is super effective on slot fades, at times he loses grass and leaves little room for the quarterback to deliver the ball on the sideline. Windows will only get tighter in the NFL, so Malik will need to make sure he does not get washed to the sideline.
I included the clip above to show Nabers’ improvement from Game 1 (FSU) to here against Florida. This in and out release is quick and generates a ton of separation at the line of scrimmage. Having this in his arsenal will help him at the next level and limit defenders from pressing him.
Route Running (Out Cuts)
I mentioned earlier that Nabers is most comfortable on slot fades and in breaking routes. He is still young though and he could use some fine tuning as a route runner, specifically on out breaking routes.
While Alabama has a good coverage call and defends this play well, this route by Nabers could be sharper and not lose as much grass on his out cut. He was not asked to run a lot of outs, sails, corners, at LSU, and thus, will need reps to improve in this area.
Projected Landing Spots:
I can’t see Malik Nabers falling out of the top 10 picks given his ability and the value of a star receiver on a rookie contract. I believe that his ceiling is pick #5 to the Chargers, which would be an ideal spot with Justin Herbert. If he gets by the Chargers, expect the Giants to pounce at #6, and if they pass, it’s doubtful he will make it past the Bears at pick #9.
Pao’s Player Comp:
A Stefon Diggs/DJ Moore blend
A big play receiver with elite burst who is dangerous with the ball in his hand.
Summary
In most draft classes, Malik Nabers would be the consensus number one wide receiver. Nevertheless, while he may lack the size and polish that Marvin Harrison Jr. has, he is quicker and more explosive with the ball in his hands. Malik projects as a future WR1 of a team who will be able to separate easily and should have early success given his success at the collegiate level against SEC defenses.